PATA Forecasts Asia Pacific Tourism to Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2026

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028, projecting that inbound travel to the region will surpass pre-pandemic levels starting in 2026, with baseline visitor arrivals expected to reach 761.2 million by 2028.

Tourism Recovery Gains Pace in Asia Pacific Amid Global Uncertainty

The report also outlines a more conservative scenario, where international arrivals could reach 599.7 million by 2028, representing approximately 88% of 2019 levels. This dual outlook reflects ongoing global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic volatility.

Noor Ahmad Hamid, CEO of PATA, noted, “International tourism is entering a more complex phase where growth continues, but under increasing pressure. At PATA, we recognise both sides of the equation—the positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, and the downside risks arising from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions.

“In this environment, growth is no longer linear or guaranteed. Destinations and organisations must be prepared for multiple scenarios, with the ability to adapt quickly, recalibrate strategies, and respond with agility. Decision-making must be grounded in real-time data and a clear understanding of risk.

“Ultimately, resilience and preparedness will define how well the industry navigates this next phase of uncertainty.”

The report was developed in partnership with the School of Hotel and Tourism Management The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. According to Haiyan Song, the findings reflect not only recovery trends but also broader structural shifts shaping the global tourism economy, including digital transformation and changing travel dynamics.

“The results reflect not only the pace of recovery across destinations, but also the deeper structural changes transforming the tourism economy,” said Professor Haiyan Song, Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International Tourism, Research Center for Digital Transformation of Tourism, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (SHTM). “Understanding these dynamics is critical for destinations seeking to navigate uncertainty while pursuing more sustainable and competitive growth.”

Covering 39 destinations across the Asia Pacific region, the report provides detailed inbound visitor forecasts and highlights varying recovery trajectories across markets. It identifies geopolitical uncertainty, climate-related disruptions, evolving aviation capacity, visa policies, and rapid technological advancements as key factors influencing future growth.

Among key insights, China, the United States, and Türkiye are expected to remain the top destination markets through 2028. Meanwhile, major source markets are projected to include China, Hong Kong SAR, the United States, and South Korea.

The report also notes strong recovery performance in destinations such as Japan, Mongolia, Chile, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, all of which are projected to exceed 150% of their 2019 visitor levels.

Overall, 27 of the 39 destinations covered in the study are expected to surpass pre-pandemic arrival volumes by 2028, underscoring a broad, though uneven, regional recovery.

The report is available through PATA’s official channels, with access depending on membership level, while non-members can purchase it via the association’s publications platform.