Asia Pacific Tourism Growth Driven by China and Vietnam

PATA Forecast Highlights Tourism Trends Across Asia Pacific

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), in partnership with the Research Centre for Digital Transformation of Tourism (RCDTT) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU), has released the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028: Mid-Year Update, outlining the destinations and source markets expected to shape tourism across the region over the next three years.

The report forecasts that international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across 39 Asia Pacific destinations will reach 714.9 million in 2026, increase to 758.8 million in 2027, and rise to 789.2 million by 2028. By the end of the forecast period, arrivals are projected to reach 115.6% of 2019 levels, reflecting continued growth across the region.

PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid said the tourism industry is operating in an environment of constant change, where destinations must remain adaptable and make informed decisions based on reliable data. He added that while tourism continues to recover, factors such as geopolitical developments, changing traveller preferences, connectivity and operating costs will continue to influence growth.

Asia Pacific Destination Recovery and Growth

Among the region’s ten largest tourism destinations, Vietnam is expected to record the strongest growth between 2025 and 2027, with international visitor arrivals increasing by 31.2% to 27.8 million. Other destinations forecast to record notable growth include:

• Macao, China: +19.4%
• Japan: +15.8%
• Hong Kong SAR: +13.9%
• Türkiye: +12.7%
• Malaysia: +11.6%

Meanwhile, China is projected to remain the region’s largest destination, welcoming 157.8 million international visitors in 2027, although growth is expected to be more moderate at 2.2% compared with 2025. Thailand and the United States are also forecast to record steady growth of 5.2% and 9.0%, respectively.

Looking ahead to 2028, Mongolia is expected to achieve the highest recovery among countries, reaching 177.8% of its 2019 visitor numbers. Japan, the Maldives, Vietnam and Sri Lanka are also forecast to exceed their pre-pandemic arrival figures.

The report estimates that 27 of the 39 destinations will surpass 2019 visitor levels by 2027, increasing to 30 destinations by 2028.

Key Outbound Tourism Markets

The forecasts identify China as the largest outbound tourism market in the Asia Pacific region in 2027, generating almost 127 million outbound visitor arrivals, followed by the United States with 65.2 million. Both markets are expected to grow by around 18% compared with 2025.

Other significant outbound markets include South Korea, Canada and Mexico, although growth rates are expected to differ across these countries.

Challenges and Opportunities

The PATA report notes that geopolitical tensions, fluctuating energy prices, aviation costs and inflation remain potential challenges for the tourism industry. Rising living costs in several source markets could also influence travel spending, particularly for long-haul travel.

At the same time, expanded airline networks, airport developments, visa facilitation, and stronger intra-regional travel demand are expected to support continued tourism growth across the Asia-Pacific region.

Professor Haiyan Song, Director of RCDTT at PolyU, said destinations should remain flexible as market conditions continue to evolve, adding that the forecasts provide valuable insights for governments, tourism organisations and industry stakeholders planning future strategies.

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026–2028: Mid-Year Update includes annual and quarterly forecasts for 39 destinations, together with analysis of key source markets, destination performance and the economic and geopolitical factors influencing tourism across the region.

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